At FiveThirtyEight, Micah Cohen updates that site’s nifty summary of recent approval rate polling on America’s governors. There are eleven who are “underwater,” with negative approval/disapproval ratios. Nine of them are Republicans (the two exceptions are Pat Quinn of IL and Linc Chafee of RI), and of those, four (Rick Snyder of MI, Paul LePage of ME, Tom Corbett of PA and Rick Scott of FL) are in states carried by Obama in 2012. The next three governors up the list, with a net positive approval rating of 5% or less, are all Republicans (Sean Parnell of AK, Jan Brewer of AZ, and Scott Walker of WI).

You never know for certain sure, especially with midterms, but it’s a reasonably safe bet to predict that whatever happens with Congress in 2014, Democrats are going to make gains in governorships.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.