So councilmember Muriel Bowser defeated Mayor Vincent Gray by a comfortable margin in D.C.’s Democratic Mayoral primary, after a low-turnout Election Day and a slow count. This makes two consecutive mayors denied a second term by their own party electorate. And since Bowser is most definitely the protege of former mayor Adrian Fenty, whom Gray dispatched in 2009, there’s an element of revenge.

While Gray as the nominee would have been vulnerable to a rare general election challenge from independent David Catania–at least so long as the threat of an indictment hung over him–Bowser will go into the general election strongly favored. But she needs to start reaching out beyond her coalition of support pretty soon, or her tenure could be as star-crossed as the last two.

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Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.