Polling Update

The weightiest polling news for the weekend and today is the 50-state data dump for both Senate and gubernatorial races by the CBS/New York Times/YouGov tracking polls.

In Senate races, these polls provide relatively good news for Republicans in Alaska (Sullivan up 4), Arkansas (Cotton up 5), Georgia (Perdue up 3, and Nunn 6 short of number needed to avoid runoff), Kansas (Roberts up 4), Kentucky (McConnell up 6) and SD (Rounds up 13 and Pressler collapsing). Democrats should gain some cheer from the numbers for Colorado (Udall up 1), Iowa (Ernst and Braley even), North Carolina (Hagan up three), New Hampshire (Shaheen up 5) and Virginia (Warner up 10). There are very high margins-of-error for some of these polls (notably 9 for Alaska and 8 for South Dakota).

In gubernatorial races, CBS/NYT/YG has good news for GOPers in Alaska (Parnell up 3 over indie Walker), Arkansas (Hutchison up 9), Arizona (Ducey up 10), Georgia (Deal up 4 and Carter 7 points below number needed to avoid runoff) and Kansas (Brownback up 3). Democrats get good news in Colorado (Hickenlooper up 4), Illinois (Quinn up 4), Massachusetts (Coakley up 4), Oregon (Kitzhaber up 6) and Rhode Island (Raimondo up 5). These polls continue to show extremely close races in Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin.

A new batch of NBC/Marist polls shows five Senate races (Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina all within the margin of error.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.