None of this is terribly surprising to people who have been paying attention, but the exits show likely wins for Cory Gardner in CO and Joni Ernst (or as Daily Kos Elections calls her, “crazy-ass Republican Joni Ernst”) in Iowa. I’ve been hearing bad stuff from Iowa sources all day. If that’s right, Democrats would have to win Alaska and runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana to hang onto the Senate.

They’re now talking recount in Florida, though Rick Scott is hanging onto a small lead with votes trickling in from Miami-Dade and Broward. The MA governor’s race is still basically tied. Paul Davis is maintaining a small lead in KS, and WI has just been called for Scott Walker by ABC. Ugh.

I’m sad to say Nathan Deal has put away Jason Carter without a runoff, and the GA SEN race is teetering on that same edge.

Yeah, a bad moon is rising.

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Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.