So going into today’s Israeli elections the Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog kept predicting an “upheaval” was coming. And clearly trying to panic Israeli right-wingers, Bibi Netanyahu talked the same way. I suspect that tactical convergence plus the notoriously shaky Israeli polls may have misled us foreigners. Just after polls closed, leaks started pouring out of exit polls showing Likud dead even with, or ahead of, Zionist Union, and the experts I trust are all telling us on Twitter that Bibi’s probably survived.

There’s still a chance some sort of “unity government” will emerge from the results, and putting together a coalition is always harder than it sounds. But any “upheaval” will have to be found deeper in the numbers.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.