Trump’s Meltdown Could Put Several Red States In Play

This is pretty much what the electoral map at FiveThirtyEight looks like today:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

If you visit the site, you’ll notice that some of those states are lighter red/blue because the polling averages are closer. But it’s a pretty good indication of what the polls are telling us about what would happen if the election were to take place today.

Now take a look at the results from the Monmouth poll in Indiana that were just released:

Since August, Trump’s lead has dropped by 7 points and his lead among women has dropped 8 points. But here’s the kicker:

In poll interviews conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, Trump held a 45% to 38% lead over Clinton. In interviews conducted Thursday evening, after allegations of sexual misconduct by the GOP nominee emerged, Clinton held a narrow edge of 46% to 44% over Trump.

This poll’s margin of error is 4.9%. So Trump’s lead could be larger, or Clinton could actually be tied with him in Indiana.

That’s just one example of a state that could be in “swinging” right now – primarily due to Trump’s meltdown over the last couple of weeks. We’ve been hearing similar things lately about states like Georgia, Utah and Missouri. It was also interesting to read this today:

After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night.

The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is four percent…

For perspective, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012, John McCain won this state by 13 points in 2008, George W. Bush carried his home state by 23 points in 2004, and 22 points in 2000 when he was elected to his first term.

Here is another interesting story out of Texas:

Texas has a record-breaking 15 million people registered to vote ahead of the November election, the Secretary of State’s office announced Thursday…

In 2012, Texas registered 13,646,226 voters or 75 percent of the voting-age population. In 2008, the number was 13,575,062 or 77 percent of the voting-age population, according to the news release. This year’s figure amounts to 78 percent of the voting-age population and more than 1.3 million additional registered voters from four years ago, according to the news release.

Travis County [Austin] reported earlier this week that over 90 percent of its residents had registered to vote, a milestone in the county’s history. Nearby Bear County [San Antonio] tallied registering over 1 million people to vote, a 12.8 percent increase since November 2012. Harris County [Houston], the state’s largest county, reported registration numbers were up this year by 6 percent, their steepest increase in 16 years.

Polls are typically not very good at picking up the effects of newly registered voters.

With a little over 3 weeks until this election is over, the question is whether or not Trump has hit bottom yet. If the current trajectory continues, a lot of red states could be in play.

Nancy LeTourneau

Nancy LeTourneau is a contributing writer for the Washington Monthly.