So far, polls from Republican-affiliated and unaffiliated outfits are not diverging. (And they didn’t diverge much in past elections either.)
polling
Posted inIdeas and Culture
We’re All High School Debaters Now
I went to judge a national debate tournament and came away less worried about the teenagers than the politicians and pundits who argue just like them.
Posted inPolitics
El-Sayed May Be Winning. But He Should Run Like He’s Losing
If the Democrats’ brash Senate nominee in Michigan believes only the good polls and not the bad, he may wrongly conclude he need not adjust to woo swing voters.
Posted inPolitics
One Internal Pollster Saw the Primary Results Coming
Candidate-backed surveys have helped warp perceptions of Democratic primaries. Public Policy Polling’s numbers, however, have repeatedly tracked the actual results.
Posted inPolitics
Internal Polls Flopped in Michigan and Hawaii. How Will They Do in Minnesota and Wisconsin?
Pollsters affiliated with Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign wrongly projected a landslide victory. Now internals from Peggy Flanagan and David Crowley face an acid test.
Posted inPodcast
Tough Medicine for Democrats: “Too Liberal” and “Out of Touch”
Democrats are riding high after this year’s special elections, but that doesn’t mean they’re popular with voters. Strategist Simon Bazelon has advice on what to fix.
Posted inPodcast
How Democrats Won Virginia and New Jersey
We go behind the scenes with Angela Kuefler, the pollster who helped engineer the historic victories of governors-elect Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill.
Posted inPolitics
Trump’s Poll Numbers Just Entered the Danger Zone
In November, for the first time in his second term, the president’s average job approval dropped below 45 percent. That spells trouble for the 2026 midterms.
Posted inPolitics
Three Unknown Data Points That Will Decide the Election
We don’t know the rate at which Republicans and Democrats will defect, how independents will break, or how early voting patterns will change
Posted inPolitics
Harris Rebounds in Week 3 of the Gender Gap Tracker
Plus, Trump’s lazy campaign strategy and an interview with Tavis Smiley, all in the September 19, 2024 newsletter.
