Conventional wisdom has long suggested that an incumbent running for re-election with an approval rating below 50 percent is in trouble. If that is true, several Republican senators representing swing states look pretty vulnerable right now. According to recent state polls, here is where they stand on approval ratings.
- Susan Collins of Maine: 42 percent
- Martha McSally of Arizona: 43 percent
- Thom Tillis of North Carolina: 38 percent
- Cory Gardner of Colorado: 37 percent
Those are the four states that the website 270toWin lists as toss-ups. Where the same polls include a head-to-head matchup with a Democratic opponent, here are the results:
- Sara Gideon (D) 43%, Susan Collins (R) 42%
- Mark Kelly (D) 46%, Martha McSally (R) 39%
- Democratic candidate 51%, Cory Gardner (R) 40%
We still have a long way to go until November, but none of that is encouraging for Republicans, who would have their Senate majority threatened if those results held.
A group called “Payback Project” has expanded the group they are targeting to 10—adding David Perdue of Georgia, Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and John Cornyn of Texas.
With all of the attention being split between the latest outrage from Trump and the uncertainty of the Democratic primary, it is important to keep in mind that what happens in the Senate is just as important as the presidential contest.
Here is what Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii suggests that you can do with this information:
If you haven’t picked a Senate race, pick a Senate race.
— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) August 27, 2019