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Biden has a youth problem. Does Trump have a senior problem?
Despite our best efforts here at the Washington Monthly, “Mad Poll Disease” continues to ravage the American electorate.
A spate of polls this month with Donald Trump leading Joe Biden nationally and in battleground states is sparking new waves of panic in Democratic circles.
As several news outlets have noted, otherwise left-leaning young voters are dragging Biden down in nearly every poll, most likely because young voters are the least supportive of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war.
What’s receiving far less notice in the media? In these same polls, Trump is slipping with older voters.
I’ll have more on what that might mean, but first, here’s what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:
- Can Trump Delay His Way Out of Criminal Convictions?: Former federal prosecutor James D. Zirin worries the Supreme Court won’t expedite consideration of Trump’s claim of immunity from prosecution. Click here for the full story.
- What Do You Get When You Cross Samuel Alito with the State of Texas?: Legal Affairs Editor Garrett Epps explains how Justice Alito’s “slipshod opinion” overturning Roe v. Wade allowed the Texas Supreme Court to deny Kate Cox a medically necessary abortion in her home state. Click here for the full story.
Democrats are panicked about the polls precisely because of things like Texas’s nearly successful attempt to block medically necessary care to Cox, and Trump’s brazen attempt to undermine democracy in order to avoid prison.
Sure, polls don’t matter this far out, but with all that’s going on, a common refrain is, “it shouldn’t be this close.” Why is it this close?
The data suggest young leftists are not yet galvanized to stop Trump and authoritarianism, while they are willing to abandon Biden on purist grounds.
According to data from Catalist, in the 2020 election among voters under 30, Biden beat Trump by 23 points.
Recent polling tells a different story for 2024.
Here are the point spreads among young voters in recent polls:
Fox News, under 30: Trump +7
The New York Times (registered voters), under 30: Trump +6
The New York Times (likely voters), under 30: Biden +3
NPR/PBS NewsHour, Gen Z/Millennials: Biden +4
Emerson College: Biden +5
The Economist, under 30: Biden +24
Biden is performing markedly worse among young voters, compared to the 2020 election, in four of the five polls.
OK, but how is Trump performing with seniors?
In the 2020 election, Trump won voters 65-and-over by 3 points. Compare that to the polls:
Fox News, 65-and-over: Biden +10
The New York Times (registered voters), 65-and-over: Biden +9
The New York Times (likely voters), 65-and-over: Biden +11
NPR/PBS NewsHour, Baby Boomers: Biden +14
NPR/PBS NewsHour, Silent/Greatest Generations: Biden +6
Emerson College, 60-and-over: Trump +5
The Economist, 65-and-over: Trump +13
Trump is doing far worse with seniors—a more reliable voting bloc than under 30 voters—in three of the five polls. (Note that none of the polls screened for “likely voters” except for The New York Times.)
So what could this mean?
If we take the numbers at face value, then because of his handling of the Israel-Gaza war, Biden could be attracting new senior support that largely offsets any losses among the young.
But, since Washington Monthly readers have their Mad Poll Disease vaccines, we don’t have to take early poll numbers at face value.
And we really don’t have to take early demographic subsample poll data at face value—which have high margins of error. As you can see above, the range of the subsample data results is extremely wide.
(Also, see the recent Monthly article, The Trouble with Polling Third-Parties, by Jacob Indursky, which covers the challenges of extrapolating subsample data.)
We have enough data to tell us that young voters are more critical of Israel and in turn, more critical of Biden’s Israel policy, than other generations.
But we can’t know yet if that will dictate voting behavior a year from now. We don’t know what will happen on the ground between now and then. We don’t know how high the issue will be prioritized by voters at that point.
Polling data today may be more influenced by Israel than by threats to abortion rights or Trump’s indictments. That may not be true tomorrow.
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Best,
Bill
