A better way to poll test support for independent candidates
In my Washington Monthly column today, I made the modest proposal that pollsters should not include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, or No Labels’s candidate-to-be-named-later in their surveys until they secure more state ballot lines.
After all, if a significant amount of voters in the nation won’t be able to vote for these candidates, then they shouldn’t be in national polls.
However, I’m not optimistic pollsters are going to heed my call. So I have a backup proposal.
But first, check out what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:
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Memo to Pollsters: Stop Including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: My case for leaving independent candidates out of polls until they have demonstrated a likelihood of qualifying for most state ballots. Click here for the full story.
The Potential for Chaos in the Wake of the Supreme Court’s Colorado Ballot Decision: Gerard N. Magliocca, a professor at the Indiana University Robert H. McKinney School of Law, warns that if Donald Trump is elected, his eligibility can still be challenged. Click here for the full story.
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In my column I make the observation that “including independent or third-party candidates with embryonic campaigns in polls sends a falsely legitimizing message to voters that such candidates are of similar stature and viability to the major party candidates.”
Pollsters are making arbitrary choices to include certain minor candidates, and not others. Why should the Green Party and Libertarian Party candidates get mentioned but not the Constitution Party? Why does anti-vaccine activist Kennedy merit inclusion but not anti-abortion activist Randall Terry?
The counter-argument to my case for a higher standard of inclusion is that we should still try to gauge how much support independent and third-party candidates are receiving, even if they don’t get on all 50 state ballots, because it tells us something about the state of the electorate.
Fine. Here’s a better way to determine authentic levels of support of minor party candidates:
When conducting trial heat polls, don’t mention any candidate names.
Instead of giving a list of candidates to choose from, simply ask respondents: Who do you plan to vote for in the 2024 presidential election?
With an open-ended poll question, if people say “Kennedy” without prompting, you know they really support Kennedy.
Otherwise, when Kennedy is on a short list, he may be picked by those underwhelmed by the two major-party nominees. They may be gravitating to a familiar name in temporary protest, but don’t know about his platform and are not committed to voting for him in November.
However, I still stand by my original point that you shouldn’t include candidates in national polling who have yet to prove they will be on ballots nationwide. Read my argument here.
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Best,
Bill
