Russia is toothless. If anyone needed evidence of how far and fast Russia has fallen, it is the American assault on Iran. This “war,” as President Donald Trump called it in his video message on Saturday, would have been impossible if Moscow were not bogged down with its reckless, inhumane bloodbath in Ukraine, now in its fifth year. (That’s not counting the 2014 Crimean invasion and annexation, which would make it 12 years.) While Russia bleeds, its clients, allies, and friends flail or fall.
Syria and Venezuela were pre-show. Iran is big time. Bashar al-Assad had nowhere to turn when he fled Damascus, except to hole up in Moscow. Russia couldn’t save him, but it gave him a place to retire. Nicolás Maduro could count on Cuban personal security in Caracas, which didn’t stop him from being cuffed, hooded, and taken to federal detention in lower Manhattan. For years, Russia was the guarantor of its regimes’ survival, but Moscow is spent, and Vladimir Putin is a friend without benefits. No administration would have toppled two Russian allies in one winter if the Kremlin were still a global player and protector. That’s no solace for poor Ukraine, but on the geopolitical chessboard, Kyiv’s heroic fight made changes in Damascus and Caracas possible. The world is better off without Assad and Maduro. (Goodbye Hamas and Hezbollah, too).
Russia, along with China, was supposed to be bolstering Tehran. Iran, Russia, and China signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty less than a month ago. Oh, well. The pact’s ink has not yet dried, and it appears moribund. That tells Russia and China’s proxies: Don’t count on us. That will be truer still if there is anything approximating American success in Iran.
The question of success is key. Is it regime change? Is it “obliterating” (Trump’s term) Iran’s nuclear capacities now and in the near future? Both outcomes would be welcomed in the Middle East and the United States. The next question is: At what cost?
Before answering, look at how the U.S. got to where Trump could unilaterally—and without a Congressional resolution, let alone a formal declaration of war—stage, deploy, and launch such a force against Iran.
Three structural reasons are the case.
First, Congress has punted on its war-making powers for years. It did not rescind the post-9/11 Authorization of the Use of Military Force (AUMF) during Joe Biden’s administration when it had a chance. Pop quiz: When was the last time Congress declared war? Think Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq? Check your facts.
Second, Trump returned to the White House last year with a blueprint for an imperial presidency, from Project 2025 to empire building. Was this power grab caused by the near-fatal assassination attempt on him in Butler, Pennsylvania? A predator’s ability to sniff out Russia’s weakness and China’s caution? Or just a reckless approach to life, believing he can always spin his way out? This last one is a psychological study beyond the scope of this analysis, but worth contemplating.
Finally, we have a judicial system ill-equipped to address who has the authority to declare war in moments of imminent threat.
So POTUS acts with impunity. That’s the structural part of the equation.
Next, the personal and political: There is a reason that the debut presidential overseas trips in the first and second Trump administrations were to Saudi Arabia, and his most personal foreign policy engagements were with Israel: Oil, Florida votes, and family profit. Take down or defang Iran and get all three.
Finally, outcomes: This assault on Iran may be a win-win for Trump.
Scenario for Win One: He takes down the criminal Iranian regime with a ballsy military action and even protracted war (with coordinated action by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Israel) without American boots, but some American casualties. His high-risk, high-reward gambit ends the Mullahs’ regime and further reshapes the Middle East, much as Ronald Reagan’s policies helped reshape Europe after the Cold War.
Scenario for Win Two:
Things go wrong: serious American casualties, attacks on allies, and terrorist retaliatory attacks in the U.S. Things spiral. How is this remotely a win?
He declares a state of emergency. Not martial law, but a bolstering of Homeland Security forces (Try screwing with ICE now!) and a wider deployment of the National Guard. Most importantly, a potential crackdown on civil liberties in an election year.
Clearly, he would prefer Win One to Win Two, and Win Two could, of course, backfire, but hey, he’s made the calculation.
In the meantime, we should pray for the men and women in uniform, for civilians in the region. Over half of Iranian-Americans live in California, with the highest concentration in Southern California. (Los Angeles is often referred to as “Tehrangeles”). For them, their friends, and their families, this is an extremely tense and fraught moment, regardless of their desired outcome regarding the Iranian regime.
