John Sides

Roger Simon, the Chief Political Columnist for Politico: I have never been called by a political pollster and don’t know anybody who has, but I know some pollsters, who assure me they don’t make the numbers up, and I believe them. From George Gallup’s mock Q-and-A in A Guide to Public Opinion Polls, which he […]

In response to a Michael Lewis-Beck’s post, the New York Times Washington Bureau Chief David Leonhardt tweets: Conclusion seems either off or old. IA’s UE rate is still 6% & risen much less than US vs 12/07. There are two questions that I think pertain to the original NYT article Lewis-Beck was responding to.  One […]

My new post at 538 looks at some new research on the political attitudes of the very wealthy.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, they are different than the proverbial 99 percent! [Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

Alex Lundry and I have a new post up at Model Politics.  In a YouGov survey from last week, we included an experiment.  After GOP voters had been asked which candidate they supported in the primary, we randomly assigned them to see Intrade probabilities for the GOP nomination, for the general election, or both.  Then […]

I think the press is way too focused on media strategies — both as they say in the business paid media and earned media — and way too little on grassroots organizing and the so-called “ground game” of politics. Interest groups get under-covered tremendously. There’s also kind of moralism in political journalism; that there are […]

Google search activity may or may not be predictive here, but this is interesting nonetheless: For virtually all of 2011, including the past month, there is more search activity about Ron Paul than any other candidate.  I thank John Coleman for highlighting this for me. What could this mean?  Maybe Ron Paul supporters just spend […]

Courtesy of Gallup. [Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

Number of stories in Lexis-Nexis with words “Barney Frank and “prostitute” that were published between August 25 and October 4, 1989: 302. The percentage of people who answered “no” or “I don’t know” or gave an incorrect answer when asked “Do you happen to know who Barney Frank is?” in an Oct. 5-8, 1989 Times […]

The graph below from Charles Franklin at Polls and Votes.  Everyone is talking about Gingrich, now because of the Manchester Union-Leader endorsement.  See Nate Silver’s analysis. But I’m especially curious about Ron Paul (the graph in the center).  Why are his numbers dropping?  Although it’s true that he hasn’t gotten much media coverage, it’s also […]

Before Herman Cain’s May announcement to run for President, Godfather’s Pizza was on more or less on equal perception tracking with all three parties.  Since then, political party perception of the brand took three distinct routes: it has soared with Republicans, remained neutral for Independents, and trended mildly downward with Democrats. See more from YouGov […]