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Marco Obama? Not So Fast

In the wake of Marco Rubio’s presidential announcement, much punditry has likened him to another young senator with an exotic name and a thin resume: Barack Obama in 2008. But I think that the differences between the two men are as telling as the similarities. In addition, there are some shared qualities that may have […]

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A Surprising Unsurprising Election

We could call 2014 a surprising unsurprising election. Republican gains proved larger than most anticipated. But there were few shockers in statewide races; instead, Republicans simply won most of the competitive contests. For all the talk of anti-incumbency, only three sitting governors lost. The bigger surprise was the number of controversial governors who won re-election: […]

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Harping on Mark Halperin

It’s so tempting to mock Mark Halperin’s recent piece on Jeb Bush’s 2016 prospects. Yes, it is nuts to imagine the former governor carrying California or New Jersey, except in the context of a historic landslide in which those states would be irrelevant to the outcome. It’s not so crazy to see him seriously contesting […]

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Courting the Parties

Like Hans, I attended the American University conference on “American Gridlock: Causes, Characteristics, and Consequences of Polarization.” Brandon Bartels of George Washington University wrote one of my favorite papers, especially since it confirmed what I already suspected. Supreme Court justices increasingly vote along predictable lines, defined by party and ideology. Fewer justices “surprise” the presidents […]

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Will the GOP Declare War on Rand Paul?

If Jeb Bush’s biggest vulnerability may be immigration, Rand Paul’s leading problem as a presidential aspirant is his views on foreign policy. Despite attempts to recast himself as a “realist,” Paul has broken with the foreign policy not merely of George W. Bush, but of most Republicans of the past 60 years. Republican elites are […]

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