IOWA RESULTS….Holy cow. The Iowa caucus results are so wild that even my resolute non-prediction has turned out to be wrong:

It strikes me that barring something genuinely bizarre, we pretty much already know the results: Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards are all going to do fairly well. I wonder how much the exact numbers matter at this point?

Well, with 90% 97% of the precincts reporting, here are the results:

  • Kerry: 38%

  • Edwards: 32%

  • Dean: 18%

  • Gephardt: 11%

Gephardt is obviously toast, but Kerry and Edwards both get huge boosts from this and Dean looks seriously wounded. But he’s still got tons of money, a 50-state strategy, and that famous grass roots support.

Basically, this means that Dean, Clark, Kerry, and Edwards remain serious candidates, which in turn means that we’re in for a stemwinder of a primary season. And while I should be chastened by being wrong even when not making a prediction, this result makes me think that my semi-brokered convention scenario is now more likely than not.

Oh yeah, this is going to be fun….

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