Poll Watch

POLL WATCH….This is via email from the Kerry campaign, so I don’t have a link for it yet, but apparently the latest Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll shows Bush with a 49%-48% lead over Kerry among registered voters.

This poll was conducted over the weekend, and in the immediately previous poll (ending August 25) Kerry led 48%-47%. So according to Gallup, Bush’s bounce from the convention was only about two points. Some interesting historical background on convention bounces is here.

I haven’t seen the details of this poll yet, so take this with a grain of salt for the moment. However, it looks like this election is still a horse race. Or perhaps a dogfight.

UPDATE: Here’s a table showing a history of Gallup polls taken on Labor Day weekend. This year’s race is the closest in history, matched only by the 1960 contest between Kennedy and Nixon.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the USA Today story. Among “likely” voters, Bush is ahead 52%-45% (a bounce of four points). In other poll news, Rasmussen puts Bush’s lead at 4-5 points. That seems about right to me.

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