Campaign 2004 Poll Awards

CAMPAIGN 2004 POLL AWARDS….So which poll gets bragging rights this year for calling the race most accurately? The final popular vote went to Bush 51%-48%, and the only poll that called it right on the money was….

Pew Research! Congratulations, guys!

According to the final numbers posted over at RCP, honorable mentions go to CBS, TIPP, and GW/Battleground, which all indicated a Bush victory of 2-4%. Not bad.

But who gets the goat award? Newsweek gets an honorable mention for predicting a Bush win by 6%, but that’s (barely) within the margin of error, so they get off easy. Marist predicted a Kerry win by 1%, which isn’t within the margin of error. But the grand prize goes to….

Fox News! They predicted Kerry would win by two points, 48%-46%, a stunning five percentage points off the actual result.

And Gallup? They got a lot grief during the election, and in the end they called it a tie, 49%-49%. That undecided formula they used didn’t work out so well.

Support Nonprofit Journalism

If you enjoyed this article, consider making a donation to help us produce more like it. The Washington Monthly was founded in 1969 to tell the stories of how government really works—and how to make it work better. Fifty years later, the need for incisive analysis and new, progressive policy ideas is clearer than ever. As a nonprofit, we rely on support from readers like you.

Yes, I’ll make a donation