ELECTORAL COLLEGE UDPATE….As a birthday present, Slate has updated their electoral college projection and now shows Kerry ahead of Bush 284-254. In addition, Pollkatz and Votemaster both had Kerry ahead last week and now show him even further ahead. RealClear Politics and Rasmussen both continue to show Bush ahead, but by much slimmer margins than a week ago.
The key here seems to be Florida, which appears to be moving (barely) into the Kerry column. I’ll confess to some doubts on this score, though: I’ve always figured that somehow, some way, Bush is going to win Florida. On the other hand, I think Kerry will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, even if the polls there are pretty tight at the moment. In other words, Kerry wins in a squeaker, 272-266.
But how about Congress? The latest New York Times poll has the Democrats ahead by 8 points (46%-38%) in a generic congressional ballot, about the same as several polls back in June. As I mentioned then, there are historical reasons to think that Republicans always outperform congressional polls, but even if you subtract 4 points the Dems are still ahead by 3-4% ? and this lead has been pretty steady for months. If this holds up, it could translate into a sizable Democratic gain in the House.
Yeah, yeah, I know: that’s impossible. Maybe so. I’m just saying….