LANDSLIDE?….A couple of years ago, when the generic congressional polls were showing huge Democratic leads a few months before the election, I called polling guru Ruy Teixeira and asked him what it meant. He warned me to be careful: the generic polls always favor Democrats, and a lot of their lead was bound to disappear as the election drew nearer anyway.
This year, Ruy is feeling more optimistic. Over at Showdown ’06 he writes that earlier in the year the macro and micro data were telling different stories:
But that was then. This is now and now the macro and micro data are aligning and pointing in the same direction: big trouble for the Republicans and a good chance that they could lose not only the House ? which looks better than 50-50 at this point ? but also the Senate.
….The Democrats are also running even larger leads among independents in the generic Congressional ballot ? typically 6-7 points higher than their overall lead….So, even leaving questions of relative partisan turnout aside (and I suspect the Democrats will do better, not worse, in this respect in 2006), the implications of a strong Democratic lead among independents in this year?s election, if it holds, are huge.
As Foley-gate spreads further ? and it sure looks like that’s what’s going to happen ? these numbers could get even better for Democrats. Who knows? Maybe even Dennis Hastert will lose his seat.