De Blasio’s Perfect Timing

With just a week to go until New York City’s mayoral primary, Bill de Blasio seems to be peaking at the perfect time, according to the latest Quinnipiac survey, which shows the Public Advocate’s support-level among likely voters surging beyond the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Even though the Q-Pac poll has lately given de Blasio higher levels of support than other polls, the trend-lines seem universal, as does his broad base of support. De Blasio currently enjoys a 47-25 lead over African-American Bill Thompson among African-Americans, and a 44-18 lead over Christine Quinn among women. De Blasio also leads the field among every ideological sector of likely Democratic primary voters.

Quinn has steadily lost altitude since she led the Q-Poll at the end of July, while Thompson is pulling the same 20%-22% of the vote he’s attracted in every Q-Poll.

If de Blasio falls short of 40% next Tuesday, the Q-Poll shows him trouncing either rival in a runoff (Thompson by 56-36, and Quinn by 66-25). Given the city’s massive Democratic registration advantage and widespread fatigue with Republican rule after two decades of Giuliani and Bloomberg, it’s looking like de Blasio’s on his way to Gracie Mansion.

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Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.