Since Scott Walker’s already survived a recall campaign, the CW is that he has little to fear from a re-election bid in a national midterm cycle where a lot of factors may help Republicans. Indeed, many observers are already penciling him into the 2016 presidential campaign.

But looky looky: the much-respected Marquette Law School poll run by the estimable Charles Franklin has a new survey out today showing Walker losing the seven-point lead he had in March and standing dead-even with Democrat Mary Burke at 46% each. Worse yet for Walker, there are signs the deterioration of his position is mainly attributable to steadily improving name ID for Burke, which still has a long way to go to match his.

Among likely voters, Walker still has a three-point lead. But he’s the sort of pol who regularly generates negative as well as positive enthusiasm, and in a hyper-polarized state like Wisconsin, both sides may be psyched out of their skulls by November. If I were him, I’d resist the temptation to spend much time in Iowa.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.