Polling Update

So on the spur of the moment, I’m going to institute a regular feature here, between now and November 4, of quick updates on new polling, instead of just occasionally featuring them in posts or mentioning them in isolation in roundups. I’ll probably do them in the afternoons when all the new releases are out.

* In Georgia, Survey USA has a new LV poll out (for Atlanta’s WXIA) showing both the Senate and governor’s races basically tied. In the Senate contest, David Perdue still has a 3.4% lead in the RCP polling averages, but a lot of it is attributable to a dubious Insider Advantage poll showing him up 10 points. The RCP averages for the Deal/Carter governor’s race, however, are a virtual tie. In looking at Georgia always remember there’s a runoff required if no candidate wins a majority.

* USA Today/Suffolk University have released new LV polling for Arkansas, and in both the Senate and the governor’s race the Republican surge that was recently evident may have subsided. The survey shows David Pryor up over Tom Cotton 47/45, and more surprisingly, Mike Ross within two points of Asa Hutchison, who had been enjoying a robust lead for a good while.

* Two new LV polls of the FL governor’s race–one from Quinnipiac and one from Survey USA–both show a statistical tie between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist. A tie is exactly where the RCP average has the race as well. This has been an amazingly stable race for a long while.

* There are also new polls out in places not often polled, showing (as it happens) that some long-shot GOP candidates aren’t in sight of some miracle. Roanoke College has Mark Warner up by 19 points over Ed Gillespie in VA. In CA, PPIC has Jerry Brown leading Neel Kashkari by that same 19 points. And a WBUR tracking poll shows Martha Coakley opening up a double-digit lead over Charlie Baker among LVs; Baker has been running much better in other recent polls.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.