Iran Deal Disapproval Likely To Pass Then Succumb to Veto

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There’s a new WaPo calculation out today of the yeas and nays and undecideds in Congress on the Iran Nucleal Deal.

To simplify Karoun Demirjian’s analysis, it’s reasonably clear the votes will be there in the House both for passage of a disapproval resolution and probably for a veto override. In the Senate, though, it’s dicier; opponents need only four of the 12 undecided Democrats to get to the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. But they’d have to get 11 of them to override a veto.

Congress is in recess until September 8. The deadline for a vote of disapproval of the nuke deal is September 17. Then Obama has 12 days to accept or veto it, and Congress would then have ten days to override a veto. So this will drag on for a good while, even though all the yelling and screaming isn’t likely to move that many votes. The bigger question may be whether the furor overshadows a less Kabuki-ish confrontation over appropriations, due to end on September 30 but more likely to get kicked down the road via short-term extensions as the leaves turn color and fall.

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Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.