Latest Poll Results: 56%-44%

From the Round Rock Leader:

Everybody’s laughing about this poll but it looks accurate to me! According to the official figures, voter turnout in Texas in the last presidential election was 46% of the voting-age population. So 44% seems like a reasonable guess for this year.

[Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

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Andrew Gelman

Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.