Wars and Rumors of Wars

Woke up from my nap a bit early, and that was probably a mistake: Twitter echoing with rumors about early exit results, which of course are all over the place. Fox News gets the biennial raspberry for reporting early exits as news, dubiously claiming a lead for Scott Brown with the polls still wide open. Polls are closed in much of Kentucky, and scattered returns are showing Mitch McConnell exceeding his 2008 vote.

WaPo did publish these findings from the early exits, with all the usual caveats and with no candidate preference numbers:

The contours of the electorate appear to split the difference from 2010, when Republicans won control of the House, and President Obama’s reelection in 2012. Here are the top findings from the preliminary exit poll data:

As an important caveat, many results will shift through the night as votes are counted and exit polls are adjusted.

Control of the Senate may be determined in three key states, Georgia, North Carolina and Iowa. Preliminary state exit polls show slightly more voters in Georgia and North Carolina identifying as Democrats than Republicans. But in Iowa, voters are tilting more Republican than Democrat, similar to 2010.

The partisan composition of those early voters may be largely influenced by turnout among African Americans. Preliminary results show nearly 3 in 10 voters in Georgia are African American, as are 2 in 10 in North Carolina. Iowa remains overwhelmingly white….

2014 voters appear to split the difference between voters in the latest presidential and midterm-year electorates. Early results show a national electorate that is a hair less white than in 2010, a little bit more Democratic and a little less conservative. Nevertheless, the makeup of this year’s midterm electorate does not look quite as good for Democrats as 2012.

We’ll know more in a few minutes when polls close in GA and FL, but the nonwhite turnout numbers in GA and NC sound pretty impressive.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.